An Individual-based Probabilistic Model for Fish Stock Simulation

Federico Buti
(University of Camerino)
Flavio Corradini
(University of Camerino)
Emanuela Merelli
(University of Camerino)
Elio Paschini
(CNR)
Pierluigi Penna
(CNR)
Luca Tesei
(University of Camerino)

We define an individual-based probabilistic model of a sole (Solea solea) behaviour. The individual model is given in terms of an Extended Probabilistic Discrete Timed Automaton (EPDTA), a new formalism that is introduced in the paper and that is shown to be interpretable as a Markov decision process. A given EPDTA model can be probabilistically model-checked by giving a suitable translation into syntax accepted by existing model-checkers. In order to simulate the dynamics of a given population of soles in different environmental scenarios, an agent-based simulation environment is defined in which each agent implements the behaviour of the given EPDTA model. By varying the probabilities and the characteristic functions embedded in the EPDTA model it is possible to represent different scenarios and to tune the model itself by comparing the results of the simulations with real data about the sole stock in the North Adriatic sea, available from the recent project SoleMon. The simulator is presented and made available for its adaptation to other species.

In Paolo Milazzo and Mario de J. Pérez Jiménez: Proceedings First Workshop on Applications of Membrane computing, Concurrency and Agent-based modelling in POPulation biology (AMCA-POP 2010), Jena, Germany, 25th August 2010, Electronic Proceedings in Theoretical Computer Science 33, pp. 37–55.
Published: 18th August 2010.

ArXived at: http://dx.doi.org/10.4204/EPTCS.33.3 bibtex PDF

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